China's March factory activity strongest in a year

02 Apr 2024

Factory activity in China grew at its strongest pace in over a year in March, according to the findings from a private survey published on Monday.

The Caixin/S&P Global China manufacturing purchasing managers' index stood at 51.1 in March, its strongest since February last year, following a reading of 50.9 in February this year.

A poll by Reuters suggested economists had forecast the reading to reach 51, surpassing the 50-mark dividing growth from contraction.

Additionally, this reading supports another official survey of manufacturing activity that exceeded market expectations to reach an 11-month high.

Indeed, the official survey for non-manufacturing activity in China reached its strongest since June, in addition to upbeat export and retail sales data.

"Overall, the manufacturing sector continued to improve in March, with expansion in supply and demand accelerating, and overseas demand picking up," said Wang Zhe, a senior economist at Caixin Insight Group.

Moreover, according to survey data published by China's National Bureau of Statistics on Sunday, the country's official manufacturing PMI stood at 50.8 in March, its strongest reading since March 2023, and exceeding forecasts of a 49.9 reading in a Reuters survey.

China has a growth target of "around 5%" for this year, with a deficit-to-GDP ratio of 3% for the year and a plan to bolster "high-quality growth" and manufacturing.

However, a number of economists have cautioned Beijing may have to introduce more robust stimulus in order to hit its growth targets for the year.

The most recent data indicate persistent concerns, particularly regarding prices.

For over a year, China's producer prices have consistently declined, and consumer prices have seen falls in four out of the last five months.

"Manufacturers increased purchases and raw material inventories amid continued improvement in business optimism. However, employment remained in contraction and a depressed price level worsened," Caixin's Wang stated.

"Prices remained low. A drop in raw material prices reduced production costs for manufacturers, providing leeway for them to lower prices amid fierce market competition. Both gauges for input costs and output prices reached new lows since July 2023," Wang continued.